Europol Predicts Drop in Online Piracy (Updated)

Europol published its latest Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) this week.

The report provides a detailed overview of the threats posed by serious and organized crime in Europe, and includes a section dedicated to digital content piracy.

Europol is no stranger to piracy and online copyright infringement. The EU agency has led and assisted in many enforcement efforts over the years and has been particularly active in dismantling criminal IPTV operations across several member states.

Pirate Streaming Threats

The 100-page SOCTA report touches on a wide array of crime threats but, with less than a full page, the piracy assessment is rather concise. Europol notes that pirated digital content is mostly consumed via mobile and web-based applications, driven by increased online streaming and “over-the-top” services.

The report goes on to mention that online piracy and other types of cybercrime increasingly overlap. This can include ‘theft’ of credentials from legitimate streaming service subscribers, which can then be repackaged and offered to pirates.

“Digital pirates may steal or purchase login credentials from legitimate subscribers — often sourced via phishing scams or data breaches — and then repackage multiple over-the-top libraries into a single, unauthorized service,” Europol writes.

“Piracy Will Drop”

Europol’s overview of the piracy landscape and associated threats doesn’t offer much detail, or highlight any novel or emerging threats. However, it does include a noteworthy piracy prediction, suggesting that a “drop in demand” for pirate services is expected.

This statement stands out for various reasons, including Europol’s own preface, which suggests that consumers might be more drawn to piracy today due to cost concerns and the increased fragmentation of legal streaming services.

“The current cost-of-living crisis as well as the fragmentation of content across multiple legal streaming platforms prompt consumers to seek more cost-effective and unified packages regardless of their illegality,” Europol notes.

“Yet, due to improved access to legal platforms, and enforcement scrutiny in some Member States, a further drop in users for illicit platforms is anticipated.”

The last sentence is rewritten, blown up, and separately highlighted in the piracy section of the SOCTA report. This leads to the conclusion that criminal piracy networks will be facing a drop in demand.

Where is the Data?

Rightsholders will be delighted to read this forecast, especially since it comes direct from Europol. That said, it would be good to see more data and context on how this conclusion was reached.

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Update: After publication, Europol’s head of media relations Claire Georges informed TorrentFreak that the conclusion about an expected decrease in piracy is based on current data and the future outlook; not on older data, as it initially appears to us.

“The statement in yesterday’s SOCTA is based on Europol’s analysis of the current and expected future situation that due to improved access to legal platforms and enforcement security – a drop is expected,” Georges said.

The citation used in the report is linked to older data however, as discussed below. The remainder of this article is mostly unchanged for transparency purposes, but the ending and intro are changed to reflect Europol’s clarification.

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Europol didn’t immediately reply to our request for comment but, [L]uckily, the report includes citations. The “drop in users” prediction is tied to a 2023 Europol IP-crime threat assessment, which includes a near identical statement, shown below.

The statement in the 2023 report is backed up by another citation, referencing Europol’s Intellectual Property Crime Threat Assessment from the previous year. This indeed mentions that “the overall decline of digital piracy continued” during the COVID pandemic.

This report is not the end of the trail, as another citation identifies an EUIPO copyright infringement report from 2021 as the basis for the conclusion that piracy is declining. The data this report refers to was collected between 2017 and 2020, which is far from new.

Piracy Was Rising Again

The citation-chain suggested to us that the predicted piracy decline, which is prominently highlighted in the 2025 threat assessment, might rely on five-year-old data.

Interestingly, the increased fragmentation of content across legal streaming services, which Europol highlighted as a piracy driver, mostly took place after the cited ‘piracy drop’ data was collected. For example, Disney+ and HBO MAX were still not available in Europe early 2020.

After publication of this article, Europol informed us that the prediction is not based on older data, but on Europol’s analysis of the current and expected future piracy situation. That’s contrary to how we interpreted the citations.

The conclusion also suggests a reversal compared to the EUIPO copyright infringement report that was published in 2023. That report showed – contrary to Europol’s current prediction of decline – that online piracy was on the rise again.

From: TF, for the latest news on copyright battles, piracy and more.