How Badly Did ChatGPT and Copilot Fail to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby?

In 2016, an online "swarm intelligence" platform stunned horse-racing fans by making a correct prediction for the Kentucky Derby — naming all four top finishers in order. (But the next year its predictions weren't even close, with TechRepublic suggesting 2016's race just had an unusual cluster of obvious picks.) Since then it's become almost a tradition — asking AI to predict the winning horses each year, then see how close it came. So before today's race, a horse named "Journalism" was given the best odds of winning by professional bookmakers — but could AI make a better prediction? USA Today reports: The USA TODAY Network asked Microsoft Copilot AI to simulate the order of finish for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field based on the latest, odds, predictions and race factors on Thursday, May 1. Journalism came out on top in its projection. The AI-generated response cited Journalism's favorable post position (No. 8), which has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners and a four-race winning streak that includes last month's Santa Anita Derby. ChatGPT also picked the exact same horse, according to FanDuel. But in fact, the winning horse turned out to be "Sovereignty" (a horse Copilot predicted would finish second). Meanwhile Copilot's pick for first place ("Journalism") finished in second. But after that Copilot's picks were way off... Copilot's pick for third place was a horse named Rodriguez — which hours later was scratched from the race altogether. (And the next day Copilot's pick for 10th place was also scratched.) Copilot's pick for fourth place was "Sandman" — who finished in 18th place. Copilot's pick for fifth place was "Burnham Square" — who finished in 11th place. Copilot's pick for sixth place was "Luxor Cafe" — who finished in 10th place Copilot's pick for seventh place was "Render Judgment" — who finished in 16th place... An online racing publication also asked "a trained AI LLM tool" for their predictions, and received a wildly uneven prediction: Burnham Square (finished 11th) Journalism (finished 2nd) Sandman (finished 18th) Tiztastic (finished 15th) Baeza (finished 3rd) Read more of this story at Slashdot.

May 4, 2025 - 06:32

How Badly Did ChatGPT and Copilot Fail to Predict the Winners of the Kentucky Derby?

In 2016, an online "swarm intelligence" platform stunned horse-racing fans by making a correct prediction for the Kentucky Derby — naming all four top finishers in order. (But the next year its predictions weren't even close, with TechRepublic suggesting 2016's race just had an unusual cluster of obvious picks.) Since then it's become almost a tradition — asking AI to predict the winning horses each year, then see how close it came. So before today's race, a horse named "Journalism" was given the best odds of winning by professional bookmakers — but could AI make a better prediction? USA Today reports: The USA TODAY Network asked Microsoft Copilot AI to simulate the order of finish for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field based on the latest, odds, predictions and race factors on Thursday, May 1. Journalism came out on top in its projection. The AI-generated response cited Journalism's favorable post position (No. 8), which has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners and a four-race winning streak that includes last month's Santa Anita Derby. ChatGPT also picked the exact same horse, according to FanDuel. But in fact, the winning horse turned out to be "Sovereignty" (a horse Copilot predicted would finish second). Meanwhile Copilot's pick for first place ("Journalism") finished in second. But after that Copilot's picks were way off... Copilot's pick for third place was a horse named Rodriguez — which hours later was scratched from the race altogether. (And the next day Copilot's pick for 10th place was also scratched.) Copilot's pick for fourth place was "Sandman" — who finished in 18th place. Copilot's pick for fifth place was "Burnham Square" — who finished in 11th place. Copilot's pick for sixth place was "Luxor Cafe" — who finished in 10th place Copilot's pick for seventh place was "Render Judgment" — who finished in 16th place... An online racing publication also asked "a trained AI LLM tool" for their predictions, and received a wildly uneven prediction: Burnham Square (finished 11th) Journalism (finished 2nd) Sandman (finished 18th) Tiztastic (finished 15th) Baeza (finished 3rd)